Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions

Global scenario modelling for climate stabilization lacks national resolution, particularly the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector, impeding effective policymaking. We generate 850 randomized scenarios of activity combinations Ireland’s AFOLU sector in year 2050 evaluate associated greenhouse gas fluxes to 2100. Using a GWP100 ‘net-zero’ definition, 146 achieve neutrality 38 contribute (a substantial sink) by 2050. Just one contributes 2100, reflecting future declines CO2 removals new forests (excluding potential downstream mitigation). In absence technical solutions dramatically reduce emissions intensity bovine production, milk beef output will need be substantially curtailed net-zero emissions. Active removal on destocked land, via organic soil rewetting ambitious afforestation, could moderate reducing international carbon leakage risks. scramble 2050, many nations are examining their agriculture land-use sectors. Ireland, while feasible through reduction meat dairy production smart management, beyond may prove fleeting.